A comparative frequency analysis of three standardized drought indices in the Poyang Lake basin,China     

Guixia Yan  Zhiyong Wu  Denghua Li  Heng Xiao 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(1):353-374

Regional drought frequency analysis was carried out in the Poyang Lake basin (PLB) from 1960–2014 based on three standardized drought indices: the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI). Drought events and characteristics were extracted. A Gumbel–Hougaard (GH) copula was selected to construct the bivariate probability distribution of drought duration and severity, and the joint return periods (T _a ) were calculated. Results showed that there were 50 (50 and 40) drought events in the past 55 years based on the SPI (SPEI and SPDI), and 9 (8 and 10) of them were severe with T _a more than 10 years, occurred in the 1960s, the 1970s and the 2000s. Overall, the three drought indices could detect the onset of droughts and performed similarly with regard to drought identification. However, for the SPDI, moisture scarcity was less frequent, but it showed more severe droughts with substantially higher severity and longer duration droughts. The conditional return period (Ts|d) was calculated for the spring drought in 2011, and it was 66a and 54a, respectively, based on the SPI and SPDI, which was consistent with the record. Overall, the SPI, only considering the precipitation, can as effectively as the SPEI and SPDI identify the drought process over the PLB under the present changing climate. However, drought is affected by climate and land-cover changes; thus, it is necessary to integrate the results of drought frequency analysis based on different drought indices to improve the drought risk management.  相似文献   

基于优化经验模态分解和聚类分析的滑坡位移智能预测研究     

张凯  张科  保瑞  刘享华  齐飞飞 《岩土力学》2021,(1):211-223

针对三峡库区"阶跃式"滑坡的变形特征,提出了一种新的滑坡位移预测方法。以白水河滑坡ZG118和XD-01监测点位移数据为例,采用基于软筛分停止准则的经验模态分解(SSSC-EMD)将累计位移-时间曲线和影响因子时间序列自适应地分解为多个固有模态函数(IMF),并采用K均值(K-Means)聚类法对其进行聚类累加,得到有物理含义的位移分量(趋势性位移、周期性位移以及随机性位移)和影响因子分量(高频影响因子和低频影响因子)。使用最小二乘法对趋势性位移进行拟合预测;采用果蝇优化-最小二乘支持向量机(FOA-LSSVM)模型对周期性位移和随机性位移进行预测。将各位移分量预测值进行叠加处理,实现滑坡累计位移的预测。研究结果表明,所提出的(SSSC-EMD)-K-Means-(FOA-LSSVM)模型能够预测"阶跃式"滑坡的位移变化规律,且预测精度高于传统的支持向量机回归(SVR)、最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)模型;并通过改变训练集长度,进行单因素分析,发现其与预测精度之间呈正相关关系。  相似文献   

基于水热耦合的青藏高原分布式水文模型——Ⅱ.考虑冰川和冻土的尼洋河流域水循环过程模拟          下载免费PDF全文

刘扬李  周祖昊  刘佳嘉  王鹏翔  李玉庆  朱熠明  姜欣彤  王康  王富强 《水科学进展》2021,32(2):201-210

尼洋河流域是雅鲁藏布江第四大支流,受冰川、积雪和冻土影响,水循环关系极其复杂。为深入研究该区域内的水文循环过程,本文在寒区水循环模型（WEP-COR）的基础上,针对青藏高原气候和地质特点,构建了耦合“积雪-土壤-砂砾石层”连续体和“积雪-冰川”水热过程模拟的青藏高原分布式水循环模型（WEP-QTP）。在尼洋河流域通过对2013—2016年的流量过程模拟发现,工布江达和泥曲站的逐月流量Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数分别达到0.810和0.752,比改进前的0.430和0.095有明显提升;以2015年为例,对比WEP-COR和WEP-QTP模型发现,WEP-QTP模型在汛期特别是主汛前（冻土融化期）模拟的流量过程不会出现较大的波动,模拟得到的逐日流量Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数相比WEP-COR从-0.67提高到0.54。模型增强了地下水含水层的调节作用,使得流量过程更加平稳且接近实测,研究结果表明,WEP-QTP模型适用于青藏高原的水文模拟。  相似文献   

玄武岩纤维加筋黏土数值模拟及机理研究     

高磊  胡国辉  秦仕伟 《工程地质学报》2021,29(1):237-246

为研究玄武岩纤维加筋黏土的力学特性及纤维加筋机理,采用ABAQUS有限元软件构建了玄武岩纤维加筋黏土数值分析模型,同时基于Python语言对ABAQUS建模进行了二次开发,按纤维与干土质量的百分比0、0.05%、0.10%、0.15%、0.20%、0.25%、0.30%、0.35%和0.60%,考虑了不同纤维长度和分布模式的影响,建立了一系列玄武岩纤维加筋黏土的无侧限抗压试验数值分析模型,并结合室内试验结果进行了对比验证,探讨了纤维加筋机理。结果表明:(1)采用筋土分离的方法,在ABAQUS中基于Python语言进行二次开发可实现纤维加筋土模型的简化建立,模拟结果与室内试验结果基本相符; (2)玄武岩纤维的掺入可以显著提高土体的无侧限抗压强度,并减少土体的侧向鼓胀变形量,纤维掺量、长度和分布模式对土体强度和侧向鼓胀变形量均具有一定影响; (3)纤维加筋机理与纤维在土体中的受力特征有关,通过对不同掺量、长度和分布模式的纤维在土体中受力特征的分析,可以解释其对土体力学特性的影响规律。  相似文献   

Detection of water leaks in supply pipes using continuous wave sensor operating at 2.45 GHz     

Matthaios Bimpas  Angelos Amditis  Nikolaos Uzunoglu 《Journal of Applied Geophysics》2010,70(3):226-236

An innovative sensor technique has been developed to detect water leaks in supply pipes, especially in cases where the existing prevailing methods do not offer reliable solution, such as in PVC pipelines or for minor leaks. The presented system uses a Continuous Wave (CW) Doppler sensing unit operating at 2.45 GHz, consisting of a low power transmitter, a homodyne receiver and a digital signal processing unit. The operation principle is the detection of the Doppler frequency shift of the reflected electromagnetic wave by slightly moving water that leaks out of a pipe. A first prototype has already been developed and tested in test sites as well as in real water leaking conditions. The system has additionally been compared to the commercially available water leaking methods, verifying its reliability and accuracy in the detection of water leaks.  相似文献   

河道流量演算的一种新途径   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

陈森林  沈福新 《水科学进展》1994,5(3):200-207

系统地阐述了现行各种流量演算模型普遍存在系统偏差(注)及其造成的原因,根据河槽蓄泄特性提出了滞后出流流量演算模型及其解法.实例应用表明,该模型在实例河段优于反映非线性影响的马斯京根演算模型.  相似文献   

Preferential leaching and the age of radiation damage from alpha decay in minerals     

Yehuda Eyal  Robert L. Fleischer 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1985,49(5):1155-1164

Preferential release into solution of radionuclides that result from alpha decay is a contributor to natural isotopic disequilibrium. Such release is critical to geochemical understanding of alpha-decay products and would be an undesirable characteristic of solidified nuclear waste in deep geological formations. Spontaneous annealing of the radiation damage that is responsible for the preferential release is shown to diminish the effect in thorianite and uraninite which we have found to be 550 to 1000 M.y. old, respectively. Leaching experiments and measurements of the thorium and uranium isotopes show that there is strongly enhanced release of short-lived ²²⁸Th relative to ²³²Th, but only slight enhancement of long-lived ²³⁴U and ²³⁰Th relative to ²³⁸U and ²³²Th. These results are interpreted in terms of natural annealing of damage occurring on a time scale between the ~10 and 10⁵ years of the alpha-decay products. With a simple assumption actual times for the survival of the enhanced leaching in these minerals are ~ 15,000 years.  相似文献   

太行山东麓滹沱河出山处新生代沉积相与地貌结构   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

王乃樑  韩慕康  朱之杰  李通文  戴广秀  翟荣庭 《第四纪研究》1985,6(1):44-59

研究区在大地构造上处于山西台背斜上的五台隆起与辽冀台向斜内的博野拗陷之间的过渡地区,在地貌上位于太行山地与华北大平原之间的过渡带、滹沱河及其主要(右岸)支流冶河出山口地区,是一片点缀有残山的宽广的山前夷平面与冲洪积扇。  相似文献   

各向异性半空间上方垂直磁偶极子电磁场的球面波展开式   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

江滨浩  刘永坦 《地球物理学报》2005,48(5):1191-1196

文中推导出单轴各向异性媒质半空间上方垂直磁偶极源电磁场的精确解析表达式. 应用圆柱波函数的球面波展开式和超几何函数理论，场分量中的索末菲尔德型积分被表示成快速、绝对收敛的球面波函数系展开式；展开系数是以物性参数为复宗量的勒让德多项式. 该展开式数学物理意义明显，并且不受场点和源点的位置、媒质的物性参数和频率等条件的限制. 利用本文的结果可十分方便地计算和分析任意场点处的电磁场分布.  相似文献   

Seepage and consolidation of bentonite saturated with pure- or salt-water by the method of unified molecular dynamics and homogenization analysis     

Y. Ichikawa  K. Kawamura  M. Nakano  K. Kitayama  T. Seiki  N. Theramast 《Engineering Geology》2001,60(1-4):127-138

Bentonite clay is a micro-inhomogeneous material, which consists of clay minerals (mainly montmorillonite), macro-grains (mainly quartz), water, air and others. Properties of the saturated bentonite clay are essentially characterized by the montmorillonite and water (i.e. montmorillonite hydrate). We analyze the molecular behavior of sodium montmorillonite hydrate Na_1/3Al₂[Si_11/3Al_1/3]O₁₀(OH)₂·nH₂O by applying a molecular dynamics (MD) simulation method. And by using the MD results we calculate the swelling property of the montmorillonite hydrate, and compare with an experimental result. Next, by using the same MD procedure we treat a montmorillonite mineral with a large number of external water molecules to check the properties of the water. Here we treat pure- and salt-water. Then we calculate the diffusivity and viscosity of water molecules and Na⁺ and Cl⁻ ions.

For extending the microscopic characteristics of constituent materials to a macroscopic seepage behavior of the micro-inhomogeneous material we apply a homogenization analysis (HA). That is, starting with the Navier–Stokes equation with distributed viscosity that is calculated by the former MD procedure we determine macroscopic permeability characteristics of bentonite for both cases of pure- and salt-water. Then, by using the permeability property we calculate long-term consolidation behavior of buffering clay, which is planed to be used for high-level radioactive waste (HLRW) management. Here the deformation is treated under the well-defined Cam clay model.  相似文献